PVC is cautiously bullish in the medium term befor

2022-08-12
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PVC is cautiously bullish in the medium term before the crisis of crude oil

last week, PVC hit a periodic high. However, in the medium and long term, the expected tightening of policies, sufficient supply of PVC raw materials, demand recovery and other uncertain factors still have a far-reaching impact on PVC prices. PVC medium-term cautious bullish

when crude oil is not in crisis

according to the latest assessment, the Libyan riots may affect its 12 This machine absolutely stops heating or testing explosive, combustible, flammable and highly corrosive materials, 850000 barrels of which are in the daily output of 800000 barrels. On February 24, NYMEX crude oil futures hit $103/barrel, a new high in the past two years. However, the author believes that the surge in oil prices more reflects the market's concern about the political situation in the Middle East than a substantial crude oil supply crisis. Oil prices may not be able to stand at the $100 mark. First of all, Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, currently has an idle oil production capacity of 4million barrels per day, which can make up for Libya's production losses if necessary. Secondly, the OECD member countries, which cover the world's major economies, currently have sufficient commercial crude oil inventories, which can meet the demand of 57.5 days, higher than the five-year average of 54.6 days. Therefore, this riot is not enough to cause an oil supply crisis

the market mentality is still cautious

looking at the domestic macro, is there any potential utilization of the structural characteristics of functional fossil graphene, The current market is sensitive to high inflation and "tightening" "The judgment of policy has been in a dilemma. In recent years, the global liquidity surplus and the domestic CPI remain high. After setting a stage record of 5.1% in November last year, the CPI still reached 4.9% in January this year. In 2011, in less than two months, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio twice and raised interest rates once, which shows the determination of the management to manage inflation and control inflation. This makes the market increasingly worried about the tightening of domestic liquidity , market caution continued to increase. Therefore, in terms of the current macro environment, the commodity market is still unable to find a direction

take a rational view of the recent rise in PVC

affected by sufficient supply, high social inventory pressure and other adverse factors, the price of calcium carbide continued to be depressed last week. At present, the mainstream calcium carbide in East China is reported at about 8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream calcium carbide in South China is reported at 8050 yuan/ton. The market trading is still light. At present, the supply of calcium carbide in Northwest and North China is sufficient, and the new production capacity after the holiday is released one after another, which further makes up for the backward production capacity eliminated last year due to energy conservation and emission reduction. Although the market has short-term speculation about the "price rise" of raw materials such as coke, the sluggish demand side may be difficult to transmit the cost rise to the downstream, thereby pushing up the PVC price. Therefore, the recent rise in PVC futures prices should be treated rationally

cautiously optimistic about the medium and long-term demand for PVC

as the main consumption field of PVC, the real estate market has been mixed recently. On the one hand, the recently issued "eight national regulations" and the real estate policies successively issued by local governments are considered to be the most stringent real estate regulation policies in recent years. Under this influence, the recent property market turnover in hot cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has declined significantly. On the other hand, the construction of affordable housing strongly advocated by the state may promote the demand for PVC. The central government recently determined that in 2011, more than 2million public rental housing units will be built nationwide, and the construction of various types of affordable housing will reach an unprecedented 10million units, which is nearly the supply of commercial housing last year. However, considering that PVC consumption lags behind the commencement of real estate projects for about 3 to 6 months, and there is uncertainty in the implementation process of the project, we are still cautiously optimistic about the medium and long-term demand for PVC this year

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